INTEGRAL ANALYSIS OF THE BAKING SECTOR OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY AS A BASIS FOR STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING IN WARTIME

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the state and development of the baking sector in Ukraine, taking into account economic, production and social aspects. This sector is one of the main links in the agro-industrial complex, providing the population with basic foodstuffs and contributing to employment and social stability, especially in times of crisis. In this regard, it is important to develop scientifically sound tools for analysis as a means of strategic management of development in wartime. Methodology. The article uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches to analysis, in particular: comparative analysis, grouping, index analysis and integral assessment methods. The main tool was the creation of an integrated indicator of the development of the baking sector, which covers economic indicators (profitability, consumer price index for bread, net profit of baking sector enterprises and the number of active economic entities), production characteristics (sales price index, sales volumes, sown areas and gross grain harvest) and social factors (employment level, subsistence minimum, population size and consumption of bread products). As part of the study, an integral indicator for Ukraine's baking sector was calculated for the period 2014–2023, which made it possible to track changes in its condition over a ten-year period. To form the integral indicator, data normalisation, weight coefficient determination, and aggregation using the weighted average value were used. Results. An analysis of the dynamics of the integral indicator revealed a wave-like nature of the sector's development. In 2014, the indicator stood at 0.58 points, indicating an average level of efficiency of the industry's functioning in conditions of political and economic instability. In the following years (2015–2017), there was a slight decrease in the indicator (to 0.51 points in 2015) with a gradual increase to 0.55 points in 2017. This may indicate a partial recovery in production and the industry's adaptation to new market conditions. The period from 2018 to 2021 is characterised by a gradual improvement in the integral indicator: from 0.60 points in 2018 to a peak value of 0.69 points in 2021. This stage can be considered relatively stable and productive, given the modernisation of production and growth in labour efficiency. It is particularly important that, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic in 2020, the indicator remained at a relatively high level (0.59 points), demonstrating the adaptability of enterprises in the sector. However, starting in 2022, there will be a sharp decline in the integral indicator—to 0.55 points, and in 2023—to a minimum value of 0.40 points. This negative trend is due to a number of factors: martial law, logistical constraints, resource shortages, declining purchasing power of the population, and a general decline in business activity in the country. The decline in the indicator points to a critical decline in the sector's performance and the need for urgent intervention by the state and the business community. Thus, the results of the study revealed unstable trends in the development of Ukraine's baking sector. The obtained integral indicator not only allows to record these changes, but also serves as an analytical tool for further monitoring the situation, identifying periods of growth and decline, and justifying strategic management decisions at the national level. Practical significance. The proposed methodology for integrated assessment of the sector can be used by government agencies to monitor the sector, as well as by enterprises to diagnose their own condition, strategic planning and justification of investment decisions, taking into account the specifics of the type of economic activity. The integrated indicator can serve as a basis for the development of regional programmes to support bakery enterprises, especially in times of war, unstable inflation and resource shortages. Value/Originality. The originality of the study lies in combining multi-level indicators into a single analytical system in order to provide a comprehensive description of the sector. The proposed integrated indicator is an effective tool that allows not only to record the current state, but also to identify trends and potential threats, forming a basis for forecasting and managing the development of the baking sector of Ukraine's economy. Thus, the article provides a scientifically sound methodology for assessing the efficiency of the baking sector, which has both theoretical and practical value for further research and applied use in the agri-food sector.