The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.
How to Cite
Active Engagement, Modern Defense. NATO’s Strategic Concept 2010. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_82705.htm
Countering Hybrid Treats. Food-for-thought paper. Working document of the European External Action Service of 13.05.2015. Available at: https://www.statewatch.org/media/documents/news/2015/may/eeas-csdp-hybrid-threats-8887-15.pdf
Understanding Hybrid Treats. Briefing European parliamentary research service of June 2015. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2015/564355/EPRS_ATA(2015)564355_EN.pdf
Joint communication to the European Parliament and the Council Joint Framework on countering hybrid treats. A European Union response 2016. Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52016JC0018
Countering Hybrid Warfare. A Multinational Capability Development Campaign project (2019). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/784299/concepts_mcdc_countering_hybrid_warfare.pdf
Saarelainen, M. (2017). Hybrid Threats – What Are We Talking About? European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. Available at: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/hybrid-threats-what-are-we-talking-about/.
Martynuk, V. et al. (2018). Hibrydni zahrozy Ukraini i suspilna bezpeka. Dosvid YeS i Skhidnoho partnerstva [Hybrid threats to Ukraine and public safety. Experience of the EU and the Eastern Partnership]. Kyiv: Tsentr hlobalistyky «Stratehiia XXI». Available at: https://geostrategy.org.ua/analityka/doslidzhennya/gibrydni-zagrozy-ukrayini-i-suspilna-bezpeka-dosvid-yes-i-shidnogo-partnerstva/zavantazhyty-pdf (in Ukrainian)
Hbur, Z. (2018). Aktualni hibrydni zahrozy ekonomichnii bezpetsi Ukrainy [Actual hybrid threats to Ukraine's economic security]. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid [Investments: Practice and Experience], 7, pp. 97–100. (in Ukrainian)
Akimova, L. (2018). Analiz hibrydnykh zahroz ekonomichnii bezpetsi Ukrainy: mizhnarodnyi dosvid ta ukrainski realii [Analysis of hybrid threats to Ukraine's economic security: international experience and Ukrainian realities]. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid [Investments: Practice and Experience], 22, 110–115. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2018.22.110
Tryhub, O., & Misiats, M. (2019). Fenomen hibrydnoi viiny v ukrainskii ta zarubizhnii politolohii [The phenomenon of hybrid warfare in Ukrainian and foreign political science]. Naukovi pratsi. Politolohiia [Scientific Works. Politology], 312, 324, 66–70. (in Ukrainian)
Fedyna, S. (2017). Hibrydni zahrozy mizhnarodnii bezpetsi ta shliakhy protydii [Hybrid threats to international security and ways to counter]. Visnyk Lvivskoho universytetu. Seriia: Mizhnarodni vidnosyny [Bulletin of Lviv University. Series: International Relations], 43, 54–63. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vir.2017.43.0.9412
Hryshchuk, R., Zhovnovatiuk, R., & Nosova, H. (2019) Hibrydni zahrozy u kiberprostori: faktory vplyvu na pryrodu vynyknennia [Hybrid threats in cyberspace: factors influencing the nature of their occurrence]. Suchasni informatsiini tekhnolohii u sferi bezpeky ta oborony [Modern Information Technologies in the Field of Security and Defense], 3 (36), 53–58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2019-36-3-53-58
Busol, O. (2020). Fenomen hibrydnykh zahroz natsionalnii bezpetsi [The phenomenon of hybrid threats to national security]. Yurydychna Ukraina [Legal Ukraine], 4, 6–15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37749/2308-9636-2020-4(208)-1
Kofman, M., & Rojansky, M. (2015). A Closer Look at Russia’s “Hybrid War”. Kennan Cable, vol. 7. Available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/190090/5-KENNAN%20CABLE-ROJANSKY%20KOFMAN.pdf
Kulytskyi, S. (2016). Ekonomichna skladova hibrydnoi viiny Rosii proty Ukrainy [The economic component of Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine]. Ukraina: podii, fakty, komentari [Ukraine: Events, Facts, Comments], 20, 44–57. (in Ukrainian)
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.
Import enerhoresursiv v Ukrainu za I pivrichchia 2019 roku [Imports of energy resources to Ukraine in the first half of 2019]. Available at: https://kosatka.media/uk/category/neft/analytics/import-energoresursov-v-ukrainu-za-i-polugodie-2019