ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING METHOD OF STATE STABILITY

Abstract

In the article, the authors propose a method for assessing and forecasting the stability of the state. The relevance of the work is due to the complex military and political processes taking place in and around Ukraine, attempts at large-scale interference in internal affairs (including by military means), attempts to destroy Ukrainian statehood and make the country under total control, and the lack of a methodological apparatus that can be used to assess the state's ability to withstand external and internal threats and preserve its own identity and structural integrity. The authors analyze the content of the concept of "stability", offer their own interpretation of this term and identify the factors that significantly affect it. In accordance with these factors, the article presents a hierarchical system of indicators consisting of two main groups characterizing the ability of the state to withstand internal and external influences, and contains indicators that allow to assess the military capabilities of the country, the level of conflict potential, taking into account ethnic and religious problems, the state of its economy, social and political spheres, the ability of law enforcement agencies to counter internal threats, energy security and the level of corruption. Subject of research. Assessment and forecasting of state stability. Methodology. In order to obtain functions that explicitly describe the dependence of the state's stability on lower-level indicators, the proposed approach involves the use of the theory of experimental design to form a training sample for each of the groups of indicators, followed by its processing using the method of group consideration of arguments. This approach is demanding on the level of competence of experts, but it allows obtaining dependencies that can be used to directly calculate the value of the state's stability indicators, which is of great importance in the preparation and decision-making on ensuring Ukraine's national security. The authors propose an integrated approach to forecasting the level of stability, which will make it possible to obtain both exploratory and normative forecasts, and this will increase the validity of decisions on ensuring the national and military security of the State. The purpose. The article outlines the main provisions of the method of assessing and forecasting the stability of the state, which allows obtaining a numerical assessment of stability and forecasting its development over time, taking into account a wide range of indicators covering both civilian and military spheres of the state, and also allows taking into account possible external influences (destructive or positive). Results. The article presents the system of indicators by which it is proposed to assess the stability of the state, the general procedure for calculations using the proposed method, and some results of a numerical experiment which confirmed the efficiency of the proposed approach, its sufficiently high accuracy and clarity of the results obtained. The calculations show that Ukraine's overall level of stability has declined significantly since 2014, but there is reason to believe that the state has managed to maintain it and even gradually improve it amid large-scale aggression.