ASSESSING ENERGY SECURITY AND SYSTEM RESILIENCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE GEORGIAN ENERGY SECTOR

Abstract

In modern energy systems, energy security has become one of the key priorities, as it directly affects the stability of energy supply, economic sustainability and national security. This study aims to evaluate the level of energy security within the Georgian energy system, considering technological transformation and emerging systemic risks. This research takes a mixed-methods approach, combining systems analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), resilience-based assessment and scenario analysis. A composite Energy Security Evaluation (ESEC) index has been developed to assess the performance of the national energy system. This index incorporates three key aspects: technological and operational resilience, energy dependency and supply diversification, and systemic resilience. The indicators were normalised on a 0–100 scale and aggregated using a weighted composite model. The empirical results show that Georgia's overall energy security level reaches ESEC ≈ 67, indicating a moderately high level of energy security. However, the analysis reveals several structural vulnerabilities, particularly with regard to external energy dependency and supply diversification. A scenario-based assessment shows that digitalising the energy sector and implementing smart energy management technologies could significantly strengthen system resilience. The findings suggest that improving energy security in Georgia requires a focus on energy diversification, smart grid development and modernising digital infrastructure. The proposed analytical framework can also be used to evaluate the energy security of other emerging energy systems.