MULTIPLICATIVE NATURE OF CONTEMPORARY FOOD CRISES: GEOECONOMIC CONFRONTATION AND THE WEAPONISATION OF MARITIME CHOKEPOINTS
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Abstract
The paper aims to substantiate the multiplicative nature of contemporary food crises and demonstrate that the weaponisation of maritime chokepoints is the main way this occurs. Departing from the prevailing analytical convention, which examines each global food shock as a discrete episode with its own trigger, transmission channel and policy response, the study argues that the crises of the 2020s are generated multiplicatively. Instead, it argues that the crises of the 2020s are generated multiplicatively; the drivers of food insecurity not only add up, but also reinforce one another through cross-effects, the magnitude of which is determined by the concentration of export supply and the number of logistical bottlenecks simultaneously exposed to military risk. Methodology. The research combines systemic and structural-functional analysis, a comparative case study of three episodes of corridor disruption and a periodisation of global food mega-shocks from 2007 to 2026. It also includes a statistical analysis of the FAO Food Price Index and its commodity sub-indices, as well as the formalisation of driver interaction through additive and multiplicative specifications, complemented by a chokepoint exposure index proposed by the author. The empirical base comprises the Global Report on Food Crises 2026, the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026, publications of FAO, the World Bank, IFPRI, WFP, OECD and CSIS, peer-reviewed literature on food weaponization and wartime grain logistics, and documentary evidence on the July 2026 suspension of shipping in the Ukrainian Black Sea corridor. Results. In all three episodes, the decisive mechanism of trade rupture was not the physical impossibility of passage, but rather the repricing of risk. For example, war-risk insurance premiums in the Black Sea increased fivefold in July 2026, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by over 70 per cent in the same year. The study identifies the depletion of both reserve capacities of the global fertiliser market, as the 2022 shock disabled the Black Sea capacity and the 2026 shock disabled the Gulf capacity that had previously absorbed it. The wheat rally in July 2026 above 7 USD per bushel, which was a three-year high, was driven by attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, fertiliser scarcity, and heat stress in key production regions. This is interpreted as direct empirical confirmation of the generation of multiple crises. Practical implications. As trade disruption occurs through financial rather than physical channels, instruments such as war-risk insurance and state guarantees for shipowners acquire the status of food policy tools. These should be complemented by keeping trade open, targeted transfers instead of universal price subsidies, regional fertiliser reserves and preventive financing calibrated to agricultural calendars. Value / Originality. The paper formally distinguishes between additive and multiplicative crisis generation. It introduces the concepts of dual logistical risk and exhaustion of the world fertiliser market's reserve contours. It also provides the first systematic analysis of the complete suspension of shipping in the Black Sea corridor in July 2026, comparing it with the Hormuz precedent.
How to Cite
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food security, geoeconomic confrontation, weaponisation of food, maritime chokepoints, Black Sea grain corridor, fertiliser markets, price transmission
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