Published: Aug 31, 2022

  Oleksandr Shapurov


The purpose of this article is to assess the dynamic relationship between technological development, national security, human capital and economic growth. To find out how Ukraine's economic growth changes during 2013-2020 and which factors are strategically important in this change. Methodology. Research objective: to assess the long-term relationship between independent variables (human capital, technological development, national security) based on the Fechner rank correlation coefficient and cognitive analysis; to assess the causal relationship between indicators of human capital, technological development, national security and economic growth based on multiple regression. The method of cognitive modeling, multiple regression and rank correlation allows to find out how the economic growth of Ukraine changes during 2013-2020 and what factors are fundamental for this change. Results. The causal relationships of the factors of economic growth were established with the help of the Fechner coefficient. On the basis of cognitive modeling with the use of causal relationships of exogenous and endogenous factors, the impulse impact of each factor on the whole system of economic growth indicators was assessed. It is proved that the most significant scenarios are impulses, which include factors: military expenditures, population in urban agglomerations over 1 million people (% of the total population); domestic public spending on health care per capita. The significance of the factors is confirmed by the construction of a multiple regression of the dependence of GDP per capita on the % of population in urban agglomerations, public health expenditures per capita, military expenditures per capita. It was found that in the situation under study 99.94% of all the variability of GDP per capita is explained by changes in selected factors. Practical implications. It consists in the possibility of using the results of the study for scientific developments and practical activities. The proposed cascade approach can be used in forecasting macroeconomic growth of the country and the formation of appropriate strategic development programs. Value/originality. A cascade approach to the assessment of the dynamic relationship between technological development, national security, human capital and economic growth, which includes a hierarchical sequence: the establishment of causal relationships of economic growth factors using the Fechner coefficient; assessment of the impulse impact of each factor on the entire system of economic growth indicators using cognitive modeling; proving the significance of factors using the construction of a multiple regression.

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economic growth, human capital, technological development, cognitive modeling, multiple regression, rank correlation


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