ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF TRADE WITH POLAND ON UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Published: May 31, 2023

  Iryna Babets

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of Ukrainian-Polish trade in goods on the economic growth of Ukraine. The tasks of the study include an analysis of the dynamics and structural changes in Ukraine's trade in goods with Poland, an assessment of the impact of the main indicators of the volume of trade with Poland on Ukraine's economic growth, and a study of the relationship between the indicators of Ukraine's economic growth and changes in the volume of exports and imports of the main groups of goods in trade with Poland. In the course of the research, the method of regression analysis was used to determine the influence of the total volume of exports and imports and the product structure of bilateral trade on the economic growth of Ukraine. As a result of the regression analysis, the dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on imports of goods from Poland was revealed, and the impact of changes in the volume of Ukraine's exports of goods on Ukraine's economic growth was statistically insignificant. The study confirmed the dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on changes in the volume of iron ore exports to Poland and imports of cosmetic industry products from Poland. A statistically insignificant influence of exports and imports of other main groups of goods in trade with Poland on Ukraine's economic growth was found. In the period of post-war reconstruction, the deepening of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the implementation of joint infrastructure and industrial projects, which provide for the establishment of production of necessary products using materials and components imported from Poland, can become an important component of the economic growth of Ukraine.

How to Cite

Babets, I. (2023). ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF TRADE WITH POLAND ON UKRAINE’S ECONOMIC GROWTH . Economics & Education, 8(1), 52-59. https://doi.org/10.30525/2500-946X/2023-1-7
Article views: 147 | PDF Downloads: 161

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

Ukrainian-Polish trade, export, import, economic growth, regression analysis

References

Abu-Qarn, A., & Abu-Bader, S. (2004). The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: Cointegration and error correction model analysis. Applied Economics, 36(15), 1685–1695.

Awokuse, T. (2006). Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs. Applied Economics, 38(5), 593–602.

Awokuse, T. (2008). Trade openness and economic growth: Is growth export-led or import-led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161–173.

Bajo-Rubio, O., & Díaz-Roldán, C. (2012). Do exports cause growth? Some evidence for the new EU members. Post-Communist Economies, 24(1), 125–131.

State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2021a). Heohrafichna struktura zovnishnoi torhivli Ukrainy tovaramy [Geographical structure of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods]. E-source: https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2020/zd/ztt/ztt_u/arh_ztt2020.html/ [in Ukrainian]

State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2021b). Krainy za tovarnoiu strukturoiu zovnishnoi torhivli [Countries by commodity structure of foreign trade]. E-source: https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2021/zd/kr_tstr/arh_kr_2021.htm [in Ukrainian]

GDP (current US$) – Ukraine. E-source: https://worldbank.org

Herrerias, M., & Orts, V. (2013). Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries? Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(5), 781–797.

Lee, J. (1995). Capital goods imports and long-run growth. Journal of Development Economics, 48(1), 91–110.

Mroczek W. Wojenny wzrost polskiego eksportu do Ukrainy. 13.09.2022. E-source: https://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/bez-kategorii/rotator/wojenny-wzrost-polskiego-eksportu-do-ukrainy.

Riezman, R., Whiteman, C., & Summers, P. (1996). The engine of growth or its handmaiden? A timeseries assessment of export-led growth. Empirical Economics, 21(1), 77–110.

Szybko rośnie handel Polski z Ukrainą. E-source: https://www.rp.pl/handel/art37261041-szybko-rosnie-handel-polski-z-ukraina

Thangavelu, S., & Rajaguru, G. (2004). Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36(10), 1083–1093.

Trade Ukraine-Poland. E-source: https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/pol/partner/ukr

Venables, A. J. (2003). Winners and losers from Regional Integration Agreements. Economic Journal, 113(490), 747–761.

Woolcock, S. (2010). EU trade and investment policy-making after the Lisbon Treaty. Intereconomics, 45(1), 22–25.