MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKIYE
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
Abstract
International migration is an increasingly widespread phenomenon of our age with macroeconomic determinants. There are many economic and non-economic forces behind the decision to migrate. This study estimates the impact of macroeconomic determinants on international migration to Turkiye. Turkiye’s annual data for 1990-2023 were used in the econometric analysis. The economic determinants used in this study are total tax burden, social assistance, GDP per capita, economic freedom index, unemployment, and health expenditures. Time series regression models were used in the analyses specific to Turkiye. Johansen cointegration tests were conducted to analyze the existence of a long run relationship between the variables. In addition, dynamic least squares (DOLS) and fully adjusted least squares (FMOLS) estimation methods were used to determine long run coefficients. The findings obtained from the Johansen cointegration analysis confirmed a long run cointegration relationship between the variables. FMOLS consequences indicate that real gross domestic product per capita, economic freedom index, tax burden, social assistance, and unemployment rate have a robust and significant effect on international migration to Turkiye in the long run. The DOLS analysis results also show that health expenditures have a positive impact on international migration. The results of this study can be used to develop migration projections and create migration policies that can lead to better economic and social integration among immigrants.
How to Cite
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
migration, macroeconomics indicators, tax, social assistance, cointegration tests
Ahmad, N, Hussain, Z, Sial, M H, Hussain, I, & Akram, W. (2008). Macroeconomic determinants of international migration from Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 85-99.
Ager, P., & Brückner, M. (2013). Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration. European Economic Review, 64, 76-97.
Altunç, Ö. F., Uçan, O. & Akyıldız, A. (2017). The effects of external migration on unemployment, inflation and economic growth in the Turkish economy: An econometric analysis. Researcher: Social Science Studies, 5(8), 197-212.
Angrist J. D, & Kugler, A. D. (2003). Protective or counter-productive? Labour market institutions and the effect of immigration on EU natives. Economic Journal, 113, 302-331.
Arif, I. (2020). The determinants of international migration: unbundling the role of economic, political and social institutions. The World Economy, 43(6), 1699-1729.
Asad, M., Hashmi, S. H., & Yousaf, S. (2016). Nexus between workers’ remittances, unemployment, labor migration and economic growth in Pakistan. International Journal of Organizational Leadership, 5, 360-379.
Aslan, A., & Altinöz, B. (2020). There relationship between unemployment and immigration with linear and nonlinear causality tests: Evidence from the United States. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(1), 13-24.
Bashier A, & Siam, A. J. (2014). Immigration and economic growth in Jordan: FMOLS approach. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education, 1(9), 85-92.
Beerli, A., Indergand, R. & Kunz, J. S. (2023). The supply of foreign talent: how skill-biased technology drives the location choice and skills of new immigrants. Journal of Population Economics, 36(2), 681-718.
Bijak, J., (2006). Forecasting international migration: Selected theories, models and methods. CEFMR Working Paper.
Borjas, G. J. (1989). Economic theory and international migration. International Migration Review, 23(3), 457-485.
Boubtane E, Coulibaly D, & Rault, C. (2013). Immigration, growth and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD countries. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne.
Bove, V., & Elia, L. (2017). Migration, diversity and economic growth. World Development, 89, 227-239.
Brooks C. (2019). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Cambridge University Press.
Castles, S. & Miller, M. J. (1998). The Age of Migration. Mcmillan, London.
Chamunorwa, W. & Mlambo, C. (2014). The unemployment impact of immigration in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(20), 2631-2640.
Chen, H. J., & Fang, I. H. (2013). Migration, social security, and economic growth. Economic Modelling, 32, 386-389.
Chletsos, M. & Roupakias, S. (2012). Immigration, unemployment and growth: Empirical evidence from Greece. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.39927.
Cooray, A. (2012). The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth: Evidence from South Asia. Review of International Economics, 20(5), 985-998.
Çağlayan, S. (2006). Migration theories, migration and immigrant relations. Mugla University Social Sciences Institute Journal, 17, 67-91.
Damette, O., & Fromentin, V. (2013). Migration and labor markets in OECD countries: A panel cointegration approach. Applied Economics, 45, 2295-2304.
D'Albis, H., Boubtane, E. & Coulibaly, D. (2016). Immigration policy and macroeconomic performance in France. Annals of Economics and Statistics, 121-122, 279-308.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Dinbabo, M. F. & Nyasulu, T. (2015). Macroeconomic immigration determinants: An analysis of ‘Pull’ factors of international migration to South Africa. African Human Mobility Review, 1(1), 27-52.
Dritsaki, M. & Dritsaki, C. (2024). Immigration, growth and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from Ε.U. countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 1-36.
Dolado, J. , Goria, A. & Ichino, A. (1994). Immigration, human capital and growth in the host country: Evidence from pooled country data. Journal of Population Economics, 7, 193-215.
Dökmen, G. & Tosuner, F. (2019). The effects of public expenditures and taxes on internal migration in Turkey. BAIBU Social Sciences Institute Journal, 19(3), 653-677.
Engin, C. & Konuk, T. (2020). The impact of international migration on unemployment and economic growth in the Turkish economy: An econometric analysis. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, 10(1), 103-123.
Esposito, P., Collignon, S., & Scicchitano, S. (2020). The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?. Economic Modelling, 84, 249-258.
Faist, T. (2000). The Volumes and dynamics of international migration and transnational social spaces. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Fraser Institute (2023). Economic freedom basics. Available at: https://www.fraserinstitute.org/economicfreedom/economic-freedom-basics
Furlanetto, F., & Robstad, O. (2019). Immigration and the macroeconomy: Some new emprical evidence. Review of Economics Dynamics, 34, 1-19.
Georgiana Noja, G., & Son, L. (2016). Challenges of international migration in a globalized world: Implications for Europe. International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, 2(3), 7-17.
Ghatak, S., & Moore, T., (2007). Migration and the EU labour market: Granger causality tests on a Panel VAR. Discussion Paper, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, UK.
Gianluca, O., (2010). On the effects of immigration on host countries, Unpublished Thesis University of Milan. Avaliable at: http://air.unimi.it/bitstream/2434/153786/4/phd_unimi_R07436.pdf
Gundogmuş, B., & Bayır, M. (2021). The effect of international migration on unemployment: An empirical analysis on the European countries. MANAS Journal of Social Studies, 10 (4), 2204–2217.
Gujarati, D. N. (1995), Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill, New York.
Guzi, M., Kahanec, M., & Ulceluse, M. M. (2021). Europe’s migration experience and its efects on Economic ınequality. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 14041, 1–37. Bonn: IZA.
Haug, S. (2008). Migration networks and migration decision making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 34(4), 585-605.
Jandos, C. (2014). Improving mongolia's foreign migration, Demography. 44–49.
Jean S, & Jimenez, M. (2011). The Unemployment impact of immigration in OECD countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 241-256.
Jennissen, R. (2003). Economic determinants of net international migration in western Europe. European Journal of Population.19, 171-198.
Joan, L, (2007). The Impact of immigration on economic growth. Unpublished manuscript, CEMFI; Casado del Alisal, Madrid; Spain. Available at: www.joanllull.3a2.com
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), 231-254.
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, New York.
Hagen-Zanker, J. (2008). Why do people migrate? A review of the theoretical literature. MPRA Working Paper, No. 28197.
Karemera, D., Oguledo, V. I. & Davis. B. (2000). A gravity model analysis of international migration to north America. Applied Economics, 32(13), 1745-1755.
Kritz, M., Lim, L. & Zlotnik, H. (1992). International migration systems: A Global Approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1-3), 159-178.
Latif, E. (2015). The relationship between immigration and unemployment: Panel data evidence from Canada. Economic Modelling, 50, 162-167.
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57.
Lewis, J. & Swannell, M. (2018). The macroeconomic determinants of migration. Staff Working, No. 729.
Mariya, A., & Tritah, A. (2009). Immigration, income and productivity of host countries: A channel accounting approach. Centre D’ études prospective Et D’Informations internationales, CEPII, WP no 2009–23.
Marr, W.L & P.L. Siklos (1994). The Link between immigration and unemployment in Canada. Journal of Policy Modeling, 16,1, 1-26.
Massey, D.S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A. & Taylor, J.E., (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), pp. 431-466.
Mayilvaganan, M. (2019). Illegal migration and strategic challenges: A case study of undocumented migration from Bangladesh to India. Artha - Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 25–42.
Meçi̇k, O, & Koyuncu, T. (2020). The relationship between migration and economic growth in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Journal of Human and Social Sciences Research, 9(3), 2618-2635.
Mendoza, J. E. (2006). Regional macroeconomic determinants of Mexican migration. MPRAPaper2860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Morley, B. (2006). Causality between economic growth and immigration: An ARDL bounds testing. Economics Letters, 90, 72-76.
Mwajuba, C. (2005). International migration and livelihoods in southeastern Nigeria. Global Migration Perspectives, No. 50. Global Commission on International Migration.
Nurdoğan, A. K. & Şahin, M. (2019). Is international migration to Turkey a cause of unemployment?. OPUS-International Journal of Social Research, 11(18), 2201-2223.
Parkins, N. C. (2010). Push and pull factors of migration. American Review of Political Economy, 8(2), 6-24.
Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully-modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 93-130.
Pedroni, P. (2001). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83, 727-731.
Ortega F, & Peri G (2012). The effect of income and immigration policies on international migration. Migration Studies, 1(1), Oxford University Press.
Öztürk, S & Özdil, S., (2020). Investigation of The relationship between migration, unemployment and growth in the OECD countries with panel ARDL technique. Management and Economics, 27, 1, 159-168.
Rani, S. (2018). Analysing Lee’s hypotheses of migration in the context of Malabar migration: A case study of taliparamba block, kannur district. International Journal of Research in Geography, 4(1), 1-8.
Shrestha, M. B. & Bhatta, G. R. (2018). Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 71-89.
Simpson, N. B. (2017). Demographic and economic determinants of migration. IZA World of Labor, 1-11.
Singh, K. G. (2009). Push and pull factors of migration: A case of brick kiln industry of punjab state. Asia Pacific Journal of Social Sciences, 1(1), 82-116.
Stark, O. (1990). The migration of labour. Blackwell, Cambridge.
Strielkowski, W., & Troshchenkov, S. (2013). Economic impact of immigration in Canada. Актуальні Проблеми Економіки, 8 (146), 443-450.
Taylor, J. E. (1987). Undocumented Mexico-U.S. migration and the returns to households in rural Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69, 616-638.
Ullah, M. (2012). Determinants of international labour migration from Bangladesh: A gravity model of panel data. Available at: http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/acd/re/ssrc/result/memoirs/kiyou25/25-06.pdf
Withers, G, & Pope, D. (1985). Immigration and unemployment. Economic Record, 61(173), 554-63.
World Bank (2023). World development indicators. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators/ (accessed 18 January 2023).
Available at: https://www.hmb.gov.tr
Available at: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr
Available at: https://www.tuik.gov.tr
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.