MODELLING OF THE POSSIBLE INTEGRATION CONSEQUENCES OF THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE INTO THE ECONOMIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR RUSSIA

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to mathematically reproduce the process of economic partnership between the two countries and its qualitative analysis, which include the following goals: to identify feasible outcomes, to formulate requirements for the selection of control parameters and coefficients, to give economic reasoning of the results of modelling and to provide alternative scenario of economic cooperation. Methodology. A method of mathematical modelling has been applied to investigate the possible socio-economic impact of integration of Ukraine into the EU economy. We are describing the basic mathematical model of the economy of Ukraine and two mathematical models of the possible convergence with the economies of the European Union or Russia. The results of modelling are reflected by the capacity of relevant dynamic systems and the quantitative distribution of savings. Results. On the basis of economic analysis of mathematical dependence, the conclusions on the possible economic consequences of integration of Ukraine into the economy of the European Union or Russia have been established. Practical implications. It has been found that a step towards the European Union (EU) requires the alteration of principles of economic management, timely government control. This should be done in the process of restructuring of social standards and commercial activity in terms of traditional forms of management of enterprises with low financial capacities. The process of convergence with the economy of Russia leads to conservation of the modern type of economy with many disadvantages of commercial management and government control as well as limitation of economic and political freedoms and growth of political instability in the country. Value/originality. The got results extend modern economic and mathematical tool for research of integration processes and acceptance of the proper economic decisions. Formalization of models of economy taking into account influence of the economic structured society on economic development allows at model level to probe difficult dynamic processes and possible consequences of integration of economy of Ukraine in the economy of European Union or Russia.