THE ECONOMY OF WAR AND POSTWAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: WORLD AND UKRAINIAN REALITIES

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

  Inna Irtyshcheva

  Iryna Kramarenko

  Ihor Sirenko

Abstract

The subject of the research is the study of global economic growth during the war in Ukraine, the analysis of the war economy and the postwar economic development in Ukraine. Methodology. The study used general scientific methods, in particular: theoretical generalization; methods of positive and normative analysis and statistical analysis. The aim of the work is the process of studying the world economic growth during the war in Ukraine, the analysis of the war economy and the postwar economic development in Ukraine. The conclusion of the study. The forecast for global economic growth during the war in Ukraine assumes that the rate in developed economies will reach a 38-year high of 5.7 percent, while price growth in developed and developing countries will accelerate to 8.7 percent, the fastest decline since the global financial crisis of 2008. The acceleration is projected to decline by 2.5 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, starting in 2023. Global socioeconomic development will depend on the most significant factors: energy and food contributed to rising inflation in 2021, when oil and gas supplies were constrained after several years of restrained investment and geopolitical uncertainty; rising food prices will affect every country in the world as extreme weather has reduced crop yields and rising oil and gas prices have increased fertilizer costs; factory closures, port restrictions, ship congestion, container shortages and staff shortages will continue to disrupt some sectors; labor shortages, especially in high-contact industries, are driving up wages, although inflation has caused them to fall. It has been researched that according to estimates of national and other international expert institutions, the reduction of Ukraine's GDP in 2022 will be 35%. The analysis showed that in April 2022, regions where significant hostilities are taking place or part of the territory is under occupation account for almost 20 percent of Ukraine's GDP, in particular: Kharkiv – 6.11 percent, Donetsk – 4.89 percent, Zaporizhzhia – 3.96 percent, Mykolaiv – 2.29 percent, Luhansk – 1.02 percent, Kherson – 1.62 percent. It is established that during the three months of the war in Ukraine there was a deep decline in economic activity, and the introduction of a number of tax changes to mitigate the shock in the economy led to a significant reduction in tax revenues. The directions of post-war economic growth for Ukraine are suggested.

How to Cite

Irtyshcheva, I., Kramarenko, I., & Sirenko, I. (2022). THE ECONOMY OF WAR AND POSTWAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: WORLD AND UKRAINIAN REALITIES. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 8(2), 78-82. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2022-8-2-78-82
Article views: 185 | PDF Downloads: 77

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

war economy, world economic growth, post-war economic development, war in Ukraine

References

Marshuk, L. M., Babyuk, A. V., & Strapachuk, L. V. (2022). The influence of international institutions on the financial condition of Ukraine in wartime. Economy and Society. Issue 37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-37-23

World Economic Outlook (2022). War Sets Back the Global Recovery, APRIL 2022. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022

Irtyshcheva, I., Sukhostavets, A., Falovych, V., at el. (2021). Modelling the Innovative Competitiveness of an Enterprise with a Change in Investment Provision. Estudios de Economía Aplicada. Vol. 39 No. 5 (2021): Special Issue: Innovation in the Economy and Society of the Digital Age. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v39i5.5041

Insights  analysis on economics  finance (2022). War in Ukraine is Serious Setback to Europe’s Economic Recovery. Available at: https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/22/war-in-ukraine-is-serious-setback-to-europes-economic-recovery/

Danilishin, B. (2022). Regarding the situation in the economy and financial markets. Available at: https://lb.ua/blog/bogdan_danylysyn/514088_shchodo_situatsii_ekonomitsi.html

State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2022). Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/

Kramarenko, I. S., Haustova, K. M., & Arkhangelskа, A. M. (2019). The role of investments in the development of the transport and logistics system of Ukraine. Economy and society, vol. 20, pp. 456–462.

National Bank of Ukraine (2022). Monthly Macroeconomic and Monetary Review May 2022. Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/MM_2022-05.pdf?v=4

Stehnei, M. I., at el. (2017). Formation of financial instrumentation for the sustainable agricultural development: innovative approach. Scientific bulletin of Polissia, vol. 4(12), р. 1.

Pryshchepa, O., Kardash, O., Yakymchuk, A., at el. (2020). Optimization of multi-channel queuing systems with a single retail attempt: Economic approach. Decision Science Letters, vol. 9(4), pp. 559–564.

Borshchevsky, V., Matveev, E., Kuropas, I., & Nikita, O. (2022). Territorial communities under martial law: how to ensure effective governance in the context of post-war development priorities. Available at: https://www.prostir.ua/?news=terytorialni-hromady-v-umovah-vojennoho-stanu-yak-zabezpechyty-efektyvne-upravlinnya-v-contexts-priorytetiv-povojennoho-rozvytku